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991.
Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
Catherine?Kyrtsou Walter C.?LabysEmail author Michel?Terraza 《Empirical Economics》2004,29(3):489-502
The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003 相似文献
992.
This paper identifies the empirical stylized features of consumer price setting behavior in Portugal using two micro-datasets
underlying the consumer price index. The main conclusions are: one in every four prices change each month; there is a considerable
degree of heterogeneity in price setting practices; prices of goods change more often than prices of services; price reductions
are common, as they account to around 40% of total price changes; price changes are, in general, sizeable; finally, the price
setting patterns seem to depend on the level of inflation as well as on the type of outlet.
相似文献
Daniel A. DiasEmail: |
993.
A necessary criterion for a performance measure in corporate governance is the degree to which it mirrors how well the management
succeeds in maximizing firm value. Such a performance measure is marginal q which links changes in firm value to the investments undertaken by the management. Empirical studies of investment and performance
based on marginal q have demonstrated the usefulness of this measure. Most research however, has mainly focused on long-term performance. This
paper takes a short-term perspective and, based on the marginal q-theory, considers how firms’ market values change in the extreme stock price cycle of a stock market bubble. Using a data
set of listed Swedish corporations we find an anomaly in form of a new industry specific effect that, in addition to investment, explains changes in firm value.
相似文献
Per-Olof BjuggrenEmail: |
994.
The effects on consumer welfare of requiring a utility facing cost or demand risk to use either a fixed retail price or marginal cost pricing are assessed. With marginal cost pricing and cost volatility an efficient futures market allows consumer welfare to be at least as high in every state as with the fixed price. With demand risk marginal cost pricing can benefit the consumer in every state without harming the firm if the profit difference is transferred to the consumer. A futures market can act as a partial replacement for the transfer. 相似文献
995.
In the short run, constraints in the electricity transmission system may give market power to generators. This paper examines whether the constraints themselves are a long-run equilibrium outcome in a competitive environment. We show that independent transmission companies and generators can tacitly collude to raise prices to consumers and divide the resulting profits. We also show that price cap regulation does not prevent this behavior and may in fact contribute to it. The mechanism for collusion is that generators locate their plants so that a capacity-constrained transmission line lies between them and their consumer market. We show that this constraint-based collusion can be sustained in a static game without any punishment strategies. 相似文献
996.
997.
World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis. 相似文献
998.
论证了在当前煤炭价格风险凸现的情况下,推出煤炭价格指数是运用煤炭期货、期权及互换等金融衍生工具的重要前提,并借鉴国外煤炭价格指数应用与研究的经验,提出我国煤炭价格指数的基本体系及编制的基本原则和基本方法. 相似文献
999.
房地产价格风险:国际教训、中国的现状及路径选择 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
房地产泡沫会增加金融风险,房价大幅缩水会导致银行破产,股市下跌。日本、美国、英国、泰国等都爆发过与房地产相关的银行危机。目前,中国房地产金融具有市场风险、财务风险、道德风险和信用风险等潜在风险。应利用税收手段限制投机性购房和短期炒作行为,鼓励中小户型住房的消费,加强城镇廉租住房制度建设,防范“假按揭”风险,完善惩戒机制,加强利率风险管理,完善住房置业担保制度,进一步研究制定房贷保险制度。 相似文献
1000.
Order imbalance and stock returns: Evidence from China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We investigate the relation between daily order imbalance and return in the Chinese stock markets of Shenzhen and Shanghai. Prior studies have found that daily order imbalance is predictive of subsequent returns. On the two Chinese exchanges we find the autocorrelation in order imbalances is similar to that of the New York Stock Exchange as reported by Chordia and Subrahmanyam [Chordia, T., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2004). Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 72, 485–518]. We also find a strong contemporaneous relation between daily order imbalances and returns. However, we do not find evidence that order imbalances predict subsequent returns. We attribute the difference in predicative power to differences in trading mechanisms on the two exchanges and to differences in the share turnover rates. 相似文献